{"id":7863,"date":"2021-11-11T11:04:43","date_gmt":"2021-11-11T19:04:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/abundanthousingla.org\/?p=7863"},"modified":"2021-11-16T10:35:05","modified_gmt":"2021-11-16T18:35:05","slug":"rhna-goals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/abundanthousingla.org\/rhna-goals\/","title":{"rendered":"Will L.A. County Achieve its RHNA Goals?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Over the past few weeks, cities across Los Angeles County have been releasing final versions of their housing element updates. As AHLA members likely know, state law requires cities to create strategic plans for meeting a housing growth goal (the \u201cRHNA target\u201d) by 2029. Unfortunately, most cities in our region are trying to \u201cgame\u201d the system, by <\/span>creating housing elements that don\u2019t actually encourage more housing growth<\/span><\/a> by removing barriers to housing production.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Worse, there\u2019s growing evidence that the state Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD), the agency that approves or denies cities\u2019 housing elements, <\/span>is buckling under pressure from NIMBY city governments<\/span><\/a> and approving substandard housing elements that don\u2019t follow state housing law. Last month, HCD approved <\/span>San Diego\u2019s deficient housing element<\/span><\/a>, which didn\u2019t provide evidence that sites designated for lower-income housing are actually likely to be redeveloped (a requirement under AB 1397) or include a tangible program to affirmatively further fair housing (a requirement under AB 686). HCD also approved housing elements for smaller cities in San Diego County, like Imperial Beach, that contained similar violations of state law.<\/span><\/p>\n

If this pattern continues, and the housing element update process turns into a paper exercise that changes little on the ground, then California will have missed a massive opportunity to start fixing its housing affordability crisis.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This is because the housing element requires cities to plan for much more housing than has been built in recent years. The combined RHNA target for cities across Los Angeles County is over 800,000 more homes during the next 8 years. For comparison, these cities added only 136,000 more homes during the past 8 years (or 4% total growth in the housing stock during that time). AHLA has argued that the 800,000-home RHNA target is an underestimate of the county\u2019s true housing need, and that <\/span>we need almost 1.7 million new homes to fully meet current and future demand<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nevertheless, if the cities of L.A. County did create the conditions for 800,000 more homes by 2029, this would be <\/span>a major step towards relieving housing scarcity and bringing down housing costs<\/span><\/a>. This would also help us build communities that are more environmentally sustainable, equitable, open to newcomers, and economically prosperous. This is why it\u2019s so important that cities create high-quality housing elements that legalize denser housing, especially near jobs, transit, and in well-resourced neighborhoods.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The City of Los Angeles has brought forward <\/span>a strong housing element that includes significant rezoning in prosperous, transit-accessible areas<\/span><\/a>, which is a very positive step given that it\u2019s home to 40% of the County\u2019s population. But most cities in the region, particularly high-income cities like Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, and Pasadena, have <\/span>shown themselves unwilling<\/span><\/a> to create a high-quality, legally compliant housing element.<\/span><\/p>\n

If these cities are allowed to get away with adopting housing elements that don\u2019t fundamentally reform housing policy, then Los Angeles County will probably remain on its current trajectory of producing little new housing, and will fall far short of its RHNA goals. That\u2019s a recipe for even higher rents, less homeownership, displacement of lower-income communities of color, and a growing exodus of Angelenos to less expensive states.<\/span><\/p>\n

To better understand the stakes here, we did some rough calculations to forecast what future housing growth might look like in L.A. County <\/span>without<\/b> high-quality housing elements.<\/span><\/p>\n

As a starting point, we took the County\u2019s housing growth rate for the past 4 years, and applied it forward to the next 8 years. L.A. County added 86,400 more homes between 2016 and 2020, which is equivalent to about 172,000 more homes added between 2021 and 2029. That would only increase the County\u2019s housing stock by 5% (there are about 3.6 million homes in L.A. County today), and <\/span>would only achieve 21% of the County\u2019s combined RHNA goals.<\/b><\/p>\n

However, thanks to several state housing bills that have been passed since 2017, it\u2019s reasonable to forecast a faster pace of future housing production:<\/span><\/p>\n