{"id":800,"date":"2018-07-02T20:29:48","date_gmt":"2018-07-02T20:29:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wordpress-244884-858168.cloudwaysapps.com\/?p=800"},"modified":"2020-03-11T21:42:11","modified_gmt":"2020-03-11T21:42:11","slug":"los-angeles-housing-development-update-1q-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/abundanthousingla.org\/los-angeles-housing-development-update-1q-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"Los Angeles Housing Development Update, 1Q 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"

Are you a member of Abundant Housing LA yet? Join our mailing list<\/a> for housing- and affordability-related news and weekly action alerts that help increase the diversity of housing choices available to Angelenos.<\/em><\/p>\n

\n

Welcome to the latest installment of Abundant Housing LA\u2019s Development Update!<\/p>\n

This is where we dig into public City of Los Angeles data<\/a> every 3 months to figure out what\u2019s really going on in our housing market. How much housing are we permitting and building? How many of our new homes are single-family, large apartment\/condo buildings, or \u201cmissing middle\u201d housing? And how are we doing on Mayor Garcetti\u2019s goal of building 100,000 new homes in 8 years? Where is the market headed?<\/p>\n

In these updates we look at building permits (link above), which are an indicator of imminent construction activity, as well recent openings as measured by Certificates of Occupancy<\/a>. You can read about our methodology for analyzing the data at the bottom of the post.*<\/p>\n

\n

Building Permits<\/strong>
\nFor this post we\u2019re looking at numbers through March 31st, 2018, the latest full quarter for which data is available. First up is a snapshot of overall permitting activity:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Here are the numbers behind the chart:
\n\"\"
\nNext we break down the units per building, looking specifically at what share of total permits are for projects with at least 50 units:
\n\"\"
\nLast for the building permit data, we look at how we\u2019re progressing toward the Mayor\u2019s goal of 100,000 new homes by 2021. Note that the goal\u2019s start date is July 1, 2013, and the end date is June 30, 2021.
\n\"\"<\/p>\n

\n

Certificates of Occupancy<\/strong>
\nBuilding permit data is extremely useful, but it doesn\u2019t exactly correspond to what Abundant Housing really wants: homes for people to live in. For that we need to look at Certificates of Occupancy (CoO), which track actual building openings.<\/p>\n

First a disclaimer though: The City controls whether it grants building permits, and how difficult or easy it is to receive those permits, but they don\u2019t actually build the housing. CoO\u2019s are what the developer needs when they finish the building so that tenants can move in, so it\u2019s a measure of what\u2019s actually opening to new residents. And since it takes a few years to construct a building, we\u2019d expect to see a lag of 2-3 years between Building Permit and Certificate of Occupancy for the same project.<\/p>\n

We raise these points because we want to make it clear that having fewer CoOs than building permits (which is what we see below) is not a failure on the part of the City. It\u2019s what we\u2019d expect when development activity has been growing, and it\u2019s mostly out of the City\u2019s hands whether building permits lead to real, on-the-ground construction. They almost always do, of course, but it\u2019s not a guarantee.<\/p>\n

With that said, here\u2019s the data:
\n\"\"
\nWithin this time frame 2015 had the most building permits, so we should expect to see many of those units coming online in 2017 and 2018. That didn\u2019t materialize in 2017, and it remains to be seen whether the pace picks up in 2018.<\/p>\n

Next is the data underlying the above chart:
\n\"\"
\nAnd last, we\u2019ve repurposed our \u201cprogress\u201d chart for Certificates of Occupancy rather than building permits, and our progress suddenly doesn\u2019t look so impressive:
\n\"\"
\nAs always, we invite members and readers to share their own insights about what they read from the data. Let us know in the comments, and join us on Facebook<\/a> and our mailing list<\/a> to keep the conversation\u2014and our advocacy\u2014going strong.<\/p>\n

\n

*Methodology note:<\/strong> We are now excluding any building additions or alterations that add less than 5 units, which is a way for us to avoid counting permits that may not actually be adding new units. We also don\u2019t count condo conversion permits, but do count adaptive reuse projects that add 5 units or more. Previous years\u2019 numbers have been updated based on this new methodology so the data is comparable across time.<\/em><\/p>\n

This change resulted in about 150 fewer single family homes in our calculations in previous years, and approximately 1,000 fewer single family homes in 2017. The jump in 2017 appears to be a result of recent changes to state and City law that permit the construction and conversion of accessory dwelling units. Since most of these ADUs appear to be legalizations of existing structures, we believe it\u2019s fairer to not count these as \u201cnew\u201d housing even though it\u2019s great to see these homes being inspected and coming out of the informal housing market.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Are you a member of Abundant Housing LA yet? Join our mailing list for housing- and affordability-related news and weekly action alerts that help increase the diversity of housing choices available to Angelenos. Welcome to the latest installment of Abundant Housing LA\u2019s Development Update! 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